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The Impact of COVID-19 on Residential Relocation Decisions in GTA

  • Metadata
    • Author: Saeed Shakib
    • Tags: #transportation #academic
  • Life Style <-> Long-term decision (location choice) <-> Mid-term decision (car ownership) <-> Short-term decision (daily travel)
    • COVID created unprecedented short-term behavior
  • Designed a study to assess the different layers of decisions
    • What happens to those who already had plans to relocate
    • What happens to those who had no issues with their residence
    • Also, how are households behaving in the new emerging market
  • In a stable market, utility maximizing theory seems reasonable; in an unstable market, does utility maximizing still hold?
    • Secretary problem solvers might be more applicable?
      • Once you interview a person, you have to make the decision, once you wait the market will change
  • Stated Preference Design
    • Attributes
      • Dwelling type, region, price, area, tenure type, neighborhood, access to public transit, access to highway, parking availability, walk access to school, office hours, telecommuting option
    • Conditions
      • Ask the scenario in 3 different conditions
      • COVID is no longer considered a thread due to vaccine
      • COVID is a new normal
      • COVID creates a second wave and we go into shutdown
    • Scenario Design
      • See the independent affect of each attribute, but that requires a huge sample size
      • Takes synthetic variance and covariance matrix and minimize it so it approaches independence for the attributes
    • Sample
      • From early July to late July
      • 75% response rate
      • Sample distribution is closely matching the population distribution
  • Findings
    • Factors that affect long-term choice before the pandemic and after pandemic shifted such that proximity to services and stores is no longer important
    • No trends in relocation was found
  • Conclusions
    • Based on this study, COVID seems to be a sudden shock in the system and not a long term effect